\n It is unclear how this will translate into seats given the increase in the number of electorates that are three-way contests, rather than coming down to a fight between Labor and the Coalition. Pollster Shaun Ratcliff told Guardian Australia that the latest polls show the Coalition “going backwards” in a selection of key seats he has been tracking, after initial polls in February had the Coalition ahead.
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You can find more granular breakdowns of the polls, including by demography, on our tracking page.
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Somewhat further afield, Australians have already voted, Emily Wind reports:
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In the leadup to election day, Australians have cast their ballots in a number of remote locations and even from overseas – but none as far south as the 100-odd expeditioners currently working in Antarctica.
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Expeditioners working at Australia’s Antarctic and sub-Antarctic stations were able to cast their vote by telephone – a process typically reserved for voters who are blind or have low vision – with no physical ballot booth setup this year.
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Voting opened on 22 April, with expeditioners able to vote early or on election day. But, unlike others, they won’t be fined if they do not vote, according to the Australian Electoral Commission.
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The AEC says Australians travelling to work in Antarctica need to register as an Antarctic elector before leaving the country – with “Antarctic” including the Australian Antarctic Territory, the Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands, Macquarie Island, and a ship at sea in transit to or from Antarctica.
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Arrangements were put in place for expeditioners on the RSV Nuyina in case it arrived back later than scheduled (on 2 May, the day before the election).
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It is just past 8am here in Sydney, and the polling booths are officially open!
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Voters can lodge their ballots between 8am to 6pm today.
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For a refresher on when, where and how to vote, here is our 2025 voting guide with everything you need to know.
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Key events
Martin Farrer
Under a perfect blue sky perhaps more reminiscent of home than the customary grey of London, ex-pats in Britain have been queueing up to vote at Australia House.
The wait to cast a ballot has been up to 30 minutes with the line snaking out of the entrance and up and down the pavement.
From smartly dressed office workers (the men making up surely the biggest concentration of RMs in the northern hemisphere) to holidaymakers ensuring they don’t get caught out for not being at home, there was a large cross-section of Australians in the line
But if the number of people holding Labor how-to-vote cards was anything to go by on the day Guardian Australia did its democratic duty, it’s a surefire landslide for Anthony Albanese today.
Asked how much Donald Trump and international politics has influenced the Australian election, Albanese said: “this has overwhelmingly been about Australian issues”.
The prime minister said the opposition has made an attempt at running “American style politics here of division”:
Meanwhile, the opposition thought that they could just run on grievance and try to divide Australians. We’ve seen them try to start culture wars, including against Indigenous people, targeting them. Australians aren’t obsessed by those issues. We’ve seen an attempt to run American style politics here of division and pitting Australians against each other, and I think that that’s not the Australian way.
Albanese says he’s aiming for ‘back to back wins’
The prime minister Anthony Albanese was on ABC earlier this morning, saying “back to back wins” is “what we are aiming for today”.
He made his final pitch to undecided or disillusioned voters:
We have a plan for cost of living relief today, by investing in tomorrow. We have a plan to make sure that we continue to build more urgent care clinics. 1.3 million Australians have benefited from that … 600,000 Australians have benefited from free Tafe … And for every single Australian taxpayer, all 14 million of them … will get a tax cut. We’ve created a million jobs since we were in office. Unemployment is the lowest it has been for any government in 50 years. But we know that there’s more to do, but if we get it right, if we are optimistic about Australia’s future, including acting on climate change and the opportunity it represents, not just the challenge, then we can be incredibly successful as a nation, and that stands in contrast to our opponents who’ve been bumping into each other on the field, who haven’t been able to take a mark during this campaign because they don’t know what they are doing.
Final polls show Labor in lead
Josh Nicholas
Labor is leading the Coalition 51.4% to 48.6% in Guardian Australia’s poll tracker, after a flurry of final polls from DemosAu, Newspoll, YouGov and Roy Morgan. This is close to a repeat of the last election, but, as you can see in the chart below, even on election day there is still uncertainty.
Labor’s estimated primary vote is steady at 30%, and the Coalition 33% in the latest average. The polls have Labor’s primary vote a little bit higher than this, but the model thinks there might be an overestimation of Labor as was seen in previous elections.
The estimated primary share for the Greens is about 13% according to our model, which would be about a one point increase on the last election. Others and Independents, a group that includes One Nation and the Teal independents, are on 23.5%, up about four points.
