Key events
No. 7 pick, NY Jets …
Armand Membou, OT, Missouri. The 332lb lineman dazzled at the combine. Among offensive linemen, he was first in the broad jump (9ft 7in), second in the 40-yard dash (4.91), tied for second in bench press (31 reps), and fourth in vertical leap (34 inches). Among all players, he tied for fourth in bench press. He’s only 6ft 4in, a good solid inch or three below what NFL teams want at tackle. Fortunately, there’s also a position in the NFL called “guard,” and maybe Membou would be even better there than he was at tackle at Missouri, where he was battle-tested against SEC competition week after week.
So Dan Aitch, who wrote to use earlier this evening, must be thrilled. The Raiders got the guy he wanted. People who know more than I do insist that Jeanty will be great at this level. But I watched that playoff game, and … I didn’t see it.
No. 6 pick, Las Vegas Raiders …
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State. The diminutive back took a run at Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record and fell just short with an unreal 2,601 yards. The bad news is that Penn State contained him pretty well in the Nittany Lions’ playoff rout – at least in the first half, in which he fumbled twice (losing one) and wasn’t a big factor moving the ball down the field. But NFL.com’s NextGen Stats crew ranks him first, according to their model that surely makes sense to some math majors somewhere. He hasn’t recorded a 40-yard dash time, which could also be a red flag or at least a yellow flag. Bottom line, though, is that he has that uncanny ability to find holes and burst through them, and no matter how sophisticated football analysis gets, that’s always going to be a prized skill.
No. 5 pick, Cleveland Browns …
Mason Graham, DT, Michigan. Going from Mission Viejo, California, to Michigan is surely a shock, weather-wise, but the Californian developed into a finalist for the Outland Award, given to the nation’s top interior lineman on either side of the ball. He was also a high school wrestler, and those skills have helped him battle in the confined spaces in the middle of the line. As a senior, he had 45 tackles – seven for loss – and blocked a kick.
Campbell takes a long time to walk to the stage. Can we get offensive linemen a moving sidewalk or something?
Excited about going to New England?
“That logo speaks for itself.”
With the fourth pick, the New England Patriots select …
Will Campbell, OT, LSU. Maybe a time of 4.98 in the 40-yard dash doesn’t seem all that impressive. But does it change your mind to know that the person in question is 6ft 6in and 319lb? That time placed Campbell fifth among the Offensive Linemen Who Agreed to Go to the NFL Combine This Year. Draft scouts are somewhat concerned about his “short arms” — only 32⅝ inches, according to those who measure such things. A better stat to consider, from LSU’s stat-keepers: Campbell allowed only five sacks in 2,553 snaps. No wonder former LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels is so cheerful.
So the top four picks have gone in the order most people expected. But no one expected that trade. What do the Browns have in mind now that they’re up?
We get another view of Shedeur Sanders’ couch. It’s green.
With the No. 3 pick in the NFL Draft …
The New York Giants select …
Abdul Carter, edge, Penn State. The Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year led the nation in tackles for loss (23.5) and was in the top 10 in sacks (12). He spent the first part of his college career at linebacker but moved to defensive end with no trouble at all. At 250lb, he’ll be going around the typical offensive tackle rather than through them, but that doesn’t seem to be a problem, and it won’t stop fans who spend too much of their fall months screaming at their teams to put some pressure on the quarterback from salivating at the thought of him doing just that.
The Giants will be hoping free-agent signing Russell Wilson can be a satisfactory QB.
Oliver Connolly has a few thoughts on Hunter’s two-way potential.
So, Travis – will you get to play both ways? What did the Jaguars tell you?
“They told me they’re going to let me go out and do what I do.”
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With the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft …
Well, first, Roger Goodell is giving the Walter Payton Man of the Year award, given to a great humanitarian in the league, Arik Armstead of the Jacksonville Jaguars. He speaks for a bit, imploring the draftees to craft a positive legacy.
Then Armstead gets to announce the trade and his new teammate …
Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado. Is Hunter a legit two-way star? Or will he, like most players who dazzled on both sides of the ball in college, end up focusing on one position? His college coach, Deion Sanders, had the most successful two-way career in recent memory, but that really meant just one season with significant time at wide receiver. Sanders signed Hunter initially at Jackson State – NFL.com claims he’s the highest-rated prospect ever to sign with an HBCU (Historically Black College or University) – and took him along when he moved to Colorado. How will he fare without Coach Prime on his sideline?
In addition to swapping No. 2 for No. 5 and a complex shuffling of picks in later rounds this year, the Browns get something huge – a first-round pick next year.
Trade! Jacksonville gets the No. 2 pick
Cleveland swaps first-round picks with Jacksonville and picks up a few more picks as well.
The Jaguars don’t need a QB. Surely this next pick will be Travis Hunter.
Cam Ward picked first in NFL Draft
No surprise. The Titans weren’t going to go into next season with Will Levis as the starter.
About the pick …
Cam Ward, QB, Miami. After starting his career at FCS school Incarnate Word, Ward moved on to Washington State and posted big numbers for two years before deciding to go to the other corner of the contiguous United States for his final year. That’s where he racked up top honors – first-team All-American, Davey O’Brien Award (nation’s top QB), fourth in Heisman voting – and took advantage of the NCAA’s Covid rule to play a fifth year and set a Division I record for career passing touchdowns. But if you base your scouting on whether a player sits out the second half of a loss in the PopTarts Bowl, you may have a few questions here.
Oh, goody. We get more pre-draft festivities, as Goodell introduces the Green Bay players on stage with him. And Lil Wayne.
And now they get to hear speeches, starting with Clay Matthews reading an alleged message from Donald Trump. Some cheers at first, then some boos.
Finally, at 8:08 p.m. ET, the Tennessee Titans are on the clock. They have 10 minutes to submit their pick, or a hole rips in the space-time continuum.
NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has opted to ride a bicycle to the stage, accompanied by some legendary Green Bay Packers players and fans. That is a Green Bay tradition of which I was not aware. Booing the commissioner is also traditional, and that’s continuing this year.
ESPN shows us an empty couch somewhere in Texas that is apparently where they expect to see Shedeur Sanders. It’s a nice couch, at least.
The first person to write in tonight is (we’ll presume) a long-suffering Raiders fan, Dan Aitch …
Sitting here hoping the Raiders find a way to get Shedeur Sanders, to develop under Geno Smith.
About time the franchise made some serious strides forward.
Not sure it will, though.
He writes again to add …
… but I’ll happily take Ashton Jeanty.
I’m a little iffy on Jeanty because he didn’t face great competition until the playoffs, and he didn’t do well then.
The Titans are apparently not trading the No. 1 pick. They need a quarterback. Cam Ward is looking more and more likely to be the first player to make the walk on stage.
About two-way players …
Deion Sanders, who coached two-way hopeful Travis Hunter at Colorado, didn’t believe in specialization. His play as a shutdown corner in the NFL is what got him into the Hall of Fame, but he was also a dangerous kick returner and occasionally a wide receiver — especially in 1996, when he caught 36 passes (on an inefficient 67 targets) for 475 yards and was still an All-Pro cornerback. Perhaps not coincidentally, that was the first year he wasn’t also playing baseball.
Most two-way collegiate players end up focusing heavily on one side of the ball. Think Hall of Fame defensive backs Champ Bailey and Charles Woodson, who put up eye-popping numbers in college (Bailey’s last year at Georgia: 744 yards and five touchdowns receiving, 52 tackles and three interceptions on defense) but had few enough offensive plays to count on one hand. Adoree’ Jackson is the most recent skill player to do both, but he also has only a handful of offensive plays. Patrick Peterson and Eric Weddle also got a few chances to show their stuff on offense.
No player picked his spots better than linebacker Mike Vrabel — 10 regular-season receptions on 14 targets, all for touchdowns, in addition to two touchdown receptions in two different Super Bowls.
Vrabel flashed his versatility in New England, as did two offensive players who dabbled on defense — Randy Moss and Troy Brown, both of whom played college football at Marshall. Brown finished his college career by intercepting a desperation pass on the last play of the FCS championship game.
A little less successful in New England was Rob Gronkowski, the stalwart tight end who defended one pass in his career but wound up on the blooper reels as he fell down while flailing at Kenyan Drake at the end of the “Miami Miracle” that saw the Dolphins pull off a series of laterals for an improbable last-second win.
Decades after William “Refrigerator” Perry scored a handful of touchdowns, including one in the Super Bowl, a few big defensive players get the occasional goal-line opportunity on offense. Dontari Poe has three career touches — all for touchdowns. That’s two 1-yard run and one 1-yard pass.
There is one current role player who sees time on offense and defense — the Chargers’ Scott Matlock, who had 362 offensive snaps at fullback and 137 defensive snaps at defensive line in 2024. He’s primarily a blocker on offense, though he did have four receptions for 28 yards last season.
Now being introduced … players who are attending the draft because they have a decent chance of being drafted tonight in the first round. It’ll be pretty awkward if they’re not.
Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty is the most traditionally dressed. Will Johnson looks like he plans to unleash an R&B ballad. Georgia’s Malaki Starks is in neon pink.
The national anthem is being performed on classical guitar – oops, no, he’s singing now. Hey, Chris Stapleton isn’t a bad role model for anthem performances.
An update from Green Bay, site of the draft …
Travis Hunter has jumped onstage to dance with the band.
He avoided injury.
To QB or not QB …
No position in modern sports has as much impact on a team’s chances as the quarterback.
Barring the odd gadget play, the QB touches the ball on every offensive play. And the position’s importance has only increased over time as passing has increased. Teams averaged 25-ish to 28-ish passes a game in the 1970s. Last year, it was 32.7 attempts per game, and that’s down from more than 35 a few times in the 2010s.
And QBs are expected to be accurate. The overall completion percentage in the NFL broke 60% less than 20 years ago and is now getting close to a healthy two-thirds.
That’s not all. The “dual-threat” quarterback is no longer an anomaly. QBs need to be mobile. If no one’s open, take off and run.
Teams can make it to the Super Bowl without an elite running back. Or a shutdown cornerback. They usually can’t make it without an elite QB any more. The days of Brad Johnson vs. Rich Gannon are gone. Now it’s Jalen Hurts vs. Patrick Mahomes. Matthew Stafford vs. Joe Burrow.
The panelists mentioned below (well, two of them) believe the first pick will be Travis Hunter, who is bidding to be the first legitimate two-way player in the NFL since … um … his college coach, Deion Sanders? (We’ll get to that.)
But this is the NFL, which stands for “No Fun League.” Hunter will likely be converted into a cornerback like every other two-way collegian (including Sanders, for the most part).
That said … does this draft have an elite QB? Is Cam Ward in the same class as Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams? Or Drake Maye or Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix, for that matter?
Probably not.
So the next best thing is take someone who can take the other QB down as soon as possible.
I’ll agree with Graham. Abdul Carter will go first.
Preamble
In about an hour and change, we’ll hear, “With the first pick in the NFL Draft, the Tennessee Titans select … Cooper Flagg, from Duke.”
What? Wrong draft? Oh.
Right – this is the grandfather of all drafts, the peculiar US tradition that aims to instill a sense of parity among teams so that the worst team in a given year gets the first chance to improve by gazing upon the talented players leaving college and selecting a Joe Burrow or a JaMarcus Russell first.
The NWSL has started what could become a movement by doing away with its college draft. That seems many years away from happening in the NFL.
In other words, this is the biggest night for pro football between the Super Bowl and the first 2025 regular-season game. Enjoy.
(And wouldn’t Flagg be a better pick than some? He could probably throw pretty well.)
Beau will be here shortly. In the meantime, here’s who our panel of writers think should be the No 1 overall NFL draft pick tonight:
Travis Hunter, CB/WR. Any team picking No 1 overall needs a quarterback. And Cam Ward is the top quarterback prospect in the class. But the No 1 pick should be Hunter, the electrifying hybrid corner/receiver. Whether he can play both ways in the league is an open question, but wherever he lines up, Hunter will be a gamechanger at a premium position. Oliver Connolly
Travis Hunter. I am not entirely sold on any of the quarterbacks in this class, so that’s that out the window. Instead, I would easily and happily turn the card in on football’s version of Babe Ruth or Shohei Ohtani: a guy who can play two crucial positions – cornerback and wide receiver – at an insanely high level. My comp for Hunter as a receiver is DeAndre Hopkins; my comp for him as a cornerback is Darius Slay. Think about how unprecedented that is in football history, and make the move. Doug Farrar
Cam Ward, QB. This is the NFL draft, people. You get the top pick, you draft the best quarterback on the board – and this year they don’t come better than 6ft 2in, 219lb University of Miami senior, a Davey O’Brien award winner (for the nation’s top college QB) and Heisman Trophy finalist. It’s not just about stats with him; it’s the utter nonchalance with which he piles them up. Andrew Lawrence
Abdul Carter, Edge. The chance to add an edge defender who draws comparisons to Micah Parsons is a phenomenal opportunity to transform Tennessee’s defense. The Titans should rethink their strategy at quarterback, and possibly wait to pick a new offensive cornerstone from next year’s richer talent pool while they have the chance to give their limp pass rush a huge boost. Graham Searles
You can read their full list of predictions here:
