Key events
Another who’ll be desperate to excel is Reece James. He’s the happy medium between Walker and Trent Alexander-Arnold, a physical brute with defensive nous who can also score and create – provided his body doesn’t let him down. If he’s fit, he’s England’s best right-back option – by far.
Tonight’s a big one for Marcus Rashford. He wasn’t great on Friday night, but he’s proven at this level and has always been an excellent sub, which makes him a very useful tournament player – though I wasn’t surprised he didn’t go to the World Cup, I did think it was a poor call for those reasons. We can probably assume that Tuchel likes him, but he won’t get away with too many more poor performances.
I’m really looking forward to seeing how Morgan Rogers does tonight. I was more than a little baffled that Jones was picked ahead of him for the last game, because the Villa man is more physical, more of a goal-threat, and more likely to become a first XI fixture. Him, Rice and Bellingham is a helluva physical trio – you’d not want to face them, at all – before we even consider the firepower.
By the looks of things, Bellingham will have a deeper role tonight; I hope so. Though he can play as no 10, of course he can, what makes him unique, I think, is his ability to play the three midfield roles and the way he marries skill and vision with power and pace. That being the case, you want him involved as often as possible, dominating games rather than hanging about hoping to adorn them. I also think that he fills in the gaps left by Rice, whose energy and desire are first-rate but who isn’t good enough at taking the ball under pressure to be a top-level six, nor creative enough in attack to be a top-level eight.
I’m not massively surprised by the players missing out. Walker will not be a starter at the next tournament; Burn is a lovely story but are we really saying he’s good enough even though the competition is limited?; Jones is a good player, but are we really saying he’s good enough given the competition is stiff?; and Foden has played well for England so infrequently that it makes sense to give a different kind of player a chance.
Tuchel makes four changes to the side that beat Albania on Friday night: out go Walker, Burn, Jones and Foden; in come James, Guéhi, Rogers and Bowen.
I’m going to write these down, then we’ll ponder how things might look.
Teams!
England (4-3-3): Pickford; James, Konsa, Guéhi, Lewis-Skelly; Rice, Rogers, Bellingham; Bowen, Kane, Rashford. Subs: Walker, Foden, Henderson J, Burn, Henderson D, Colwill, Eze, Jones, Gibbs-White, Solanke, Quansah, Trafford.
Latvia (5-4-1): Zviedris; Savalnieks, Jurkovskis, Cernomordijs, Balodis, Ciganiks; Jaunzems, Saveljevs, Zelenkovs, Ikaunieks, Gutkovskis. Subs: Ozols, Matrevics, Jagodinskis, Sliede, Isajevs, Daskevics, Vapne, Sits, Krollis, Melniks, Tonisevs.
Referee: Orel Grinfeeld (Israel)
Preamble
We’ve all been there: we’re sat on the bus and someone bigger, harder and braver takes unlikely and unreciprocated interest in at what we are looking. A question that is easily answered on the facts, but in practice offers no correct reply beyond absorbing pain.
Such is managing head-coaching England’s men. If you lose, you are treated badly, whereas if you win, you are also treated badly – just ask Alf Ramsey.
And games like tonight’s are an intensified version of the same. Draw or lose and it’s the worst embarrassment since that time in reception when you got changed for your first PE lesson and pulled down your pants as well as your trousers (OK, that was me, not Thomas Tuchel); win narrowly and you’re a joyless void who doesn’t know what he’s doing; win well and anyone could’ve done it.
It’s more or less impossible for England not to qualify for the World Cup and, when they get there, chances they’ll be in a group with teams who are vastly inferior. Which means the success of otherwise of Tuchel’s tenure rests on a maximum of four matches – and if he has Gareth Southgate’s luck of the draw, one or two.
That’s a lot for any manager head coach to assimilate, especially when also dealing with the additional stresses of the job: the press, the players, the fans, the suits. Tuchel, though, thinks he can do it and so he should. A strong man-manager with tactical smarts, he won an unlikely Champions League with Chelsea and has also handled Bayern’s backroom and Paris’ petrolheads; similar was not so of Roy Hodgson, nor Sam Allardyce, nor Gareth Southgate.
Yet it was of Fabio Capello. And for that reason, it remains relevant that, when we’re on the bus and someone bigger, harder and braver takes unlikely and unreciprocated interest in at what we are looking, though there is no correct reply beyond absorbing pain, there is a correct response: run away as quickly as your little legs will carry you.
Kick-off: 7.45pm GMT
