What’s at stake – analysis
Jakub Krupa
I caught up with Ben Stanley, an associate professor at SWPS University in Warsaw, to talk about what’s at stake in this Sunday’s election.
Here are the three key takeaways from what he told me:
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“If Trzaskowski loses, there will be genuine questions over the extent to which the Tusk government will be able to effectively govern and pursue any of their key reforms on issues like the rule of law.
And with the 2027 election just round the corner, the Law and Justice and Confederation will be in a strong position to think about forming the next government.”
Key events
Jakub Krupa
… and obviously I will be here with a special blog Sunday night to guide you through the evening and bring you all the latest: explainers on why it matters, exit polls, first reaction and ‘what’s next’.
See you Sunday night, live from Warsaw?
But for now, it’s a wrap from me, Jakub Krupa, for today.
If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com.
I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.
What to expect when on Sunday?
Jakub Krupa
Back to Poland, just so you can plan your weekend.
The polls on Sunday open 7am local time (6am BST), and close 9pm (8pm BST).
We will then get an exit poll commissioned by the country’s three largest broadcasters. But expect it to be potentially very, very close, so we may have to wait longer before we can draw any conclusions.
A late exit poll should be published later that night – probably somewhere between 11 and midnight – and partial actual results will keep coming over night.
As reported earlier, the full set of results is expected at some point Monday, late morning or early lunch.
Russia ‘doing everything it can’ to ensure Istanbul talks ‘bring no results’
Meanwhile, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of “doing everything it can to ensure that the next potential meeting brings no results” ahead of planned talks in Istanbul next week.
In a blistering social media post after his meeting with Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, Zelenskyy said:
We discussed diplomatic efforts — both ours and those of our partners. Russia continues to ignore all calls from the world to cease fire and continues its killings.
Moreover, for over a week now, the Russians have been unable to present the so-called “memorandum” they had promised to prepare immediately after the 1,000-for-1,000 exchange. Ukraine has received no documents from them — nor has Türkiye.
For a meeting to be meaningful, its agenda must be clear, and the negotiations must be properly prepared. Unfortunately, Russia is doing everything it can to ensure that the next potential meeting brings no results.
We value all our cooperation with Türkiye aimed at making diplomacy effective. We are grateful for Türkiye’s clear stance — consistent and full support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Chaos on German autobahns as Google Maps wrongly says they are closed
Kate Connolly
Confusion reigned on German autobahns and highways at the start of one of the busiest holiday breaks of the year on Thursday after Google Maps wrongly indicated that vast swathes of them were closed.
People using the navigation service around major conurbations such as Frankfurt, Hamburg and Berlin on motorways between western, northern, south-western and central Germany were confronted with maps sprinkled with a mass of red dots indicating stop signs. The phenomenon also affected parts of Belgium and the Netherlands.
Those relying on Google Maps were left with the impression that large parts of Germany had ground to a halt. The situation was compounded by the fact that large numbers of Germans were on the road at the start of a four-day break for the Ascension holiday.
The closure reports led to the clogging of alternative routes on smaller thoroughfares and lengthy delays as people scrambled to find detours. Police and road traffic control authorities had to answer a flood of queries as people contacted them for help.
Drivers using or switching to alternative apps, such as Apple Maps or Waze, or turning to traffic news on their radios, were given a completely contrasting picture, reflecting the reality that traffic was mostly flowing freely on the apparently affected routes.
The cause of the digital navigation breakdown is still unclear.
Georgian opposition leader in pre-trial detention amid crackdown on dissenters
A Georgian court placed Nika Melia, a leader of the country’s main opposition party, in pre-trial detention, amid a widening crackdown against a pro-Western opposition that has staged months of anti-government protests, Reuters reported.
Nika Melia, one of the leaders of the Coalition for Change opposition group, charged with failing to appear before the Georgian parliament’s temporary investigative commission, attends a court hearing in Tbilisi, Georgia. Photograph: Irakli Gedenidze/Reuters
Melia, a top leader of the Coalition for Change opposition bloc, was detained on Thursday for refusing to appear at a parliamentary inquiry into alleged crimes committed under jailed former President Mikheil Saakashvili between 2004 and 2012.
The length of the detention was not immediately clear.
Israel accuses France’s Macron of ‘crusade against the Jewish state’
Israel accused French president Emmanuel Macron of undertaking a “crusade against the Jewish state” after he called for European countries to harden their stance on Israel if the humanitarian situation in Gaza did not improve, AFP reported.
“There is no humanitarian blockade. That is a blatant lie,” Israel’s foreign ministry said in a statement, defending its efforts to allow in aid.
“But instead of applying pressure on the jihadist terrorists, Macron wants to reward them with a Palestinian state,” it added.
Earlier in the day, Macron said that France could harden its position on Israel if it continues to block humanitarian aid to Gaza, reiterating that Paris was committed to a two-state solution to resolve the Israel-Palestinian conflict, Reuters reported.
“The humanitarian blockade is creating a situation that is untenable on the ground,” Macron said at a joint press conference in Singapore with prime minister Lawrence Wong.
“And so, if there is no response that meets the humanitarian situation in the coming hours and days, obviously, we will have to toughen our collective position,” Macron was quoted by Reuters as saying, adding that France may consider applying sanctions against Israeli settlers.
Jakub Krupa
Let’s take a quick look at events elsewhere in Europe.
What’s at stake – analysis
Jakub Krupa
I caught up with Ben Stanley, an associate professor at SWPS University in Warsaw, to talk about what’s at stake in this Sunday’s election.
Here are the three key takeaways from what he told me:
-
“If Trzaskowski loses, there will be genuine questions over the extent to which the Tusk government will be able to effectively govern and pursue any of their key reforms on issues like the rule of law.
And with the 2027 election just round the corner, the Law and Justice and Confederation will be in a strong position to think about forming the next government.”
Last day of campaign – in pictures
Polish presidential election results expected on Monday
Jakub Krupa
Back to Poland, the Polish National Electoral Commission has just confirmed at their press briefing that they are hoping to have the final results of the presidential election on Monday morning or early afternoon at the latest.
Gisèle Pelicot’s daughter says she believes online pornography played role in French rape case
Lucy Knight
There is “no way” that Gisèle Pelicot would have been raped more than 200 times without the existence of pornography websites, her daughter has said.
Speaking at the Hay festival in Powys on Thursday, Caroline Darian said there were “so many social problems like online porn” that can lead to instances of abuse.
Pelicot survived nearly a decade of rapes by dozens of men, including her then husband Dominique Pelicot, Darian’s father, who drugged his wife and facilitated the abuse.
Pelicot rose to international fame last year for waiving her right to anonymity in the trial of her ex-husband and other defendants. He was sentenced to 20 years in prison.
Darian was at the festival to promote her book, I’ll Never Call Him Dad Again. Asked by a male audience member how men can “step up” and be part of breaking cycles of abuse, she said “you need to talk between guys” about pornography, because it is “part of the system” of misogyny and violence.
Banksy posts image of new lighthouse artwork believed to be in Marseille
Matthew Weaver
Banksy has posted an image of a new artwork believed to be in southern France, though its exact location has not been confirmed.
The characteristic image, posted on the artist’s Instagram account, morphs the shadow of a street bollard into the form of lighthouse. Stencilled across it are the words: “I want to be what you saw in me.”
A Banksy fansite reports that the work is in Le Panier in Marseilles, a district near the city’s port that is known for its graffiti, including several works by the French street artist Invader, who uses a pixelated style.
Lighthouse-shaped bollards line many of the streets in Marseilles, including in Le Panier.
Putin would only meet with leaders if Ukraine talks yield ‘results,’ Kremlin says
Russian president Vladimir Putin would only consider a summit with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US president Donald Trump and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan if negotiations with Kyiv yield results, the Kremlin said.
“President Putin has repeatedly stated that he is fundamentally in favour of high-level contacts,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov said as reported by Reuters, adding: “But first, results must be achieved through direct negotiations between the two countries.”
The Kremlin also said it was sending its delegation to Istanbul and that it will be “ready” for a second round of talks with Kyiv on Monday.
Jakub Krupa
Let’s take a brief look at events elsewhere in Europe.
For what it’s worth, former Polish presidents broke 3:1 for Trzaskowski, with legendary Solidarność leader and Nobel prize winner Lech Wałęsa (and Polish president from 1990 to 1995) the latest to declare his support for “anyone but Nawrocki” on his social media.
“My last request… and a warning!” he said.
Aleksander Kwaśniewski (1995 to 2005) and Bronisław Komorowski (2005 to 2010) also declared their support for Trzaskowski, but the outgoing incumbent Andrzej Duda backed Nawrocki instead.
“I, Andrzej Duda, having the same right as all of you to go to the polls and cast my vote, will vote for Karol Nawrocki in this election, because I believe that he is a man who will strive and do everything he can to make Poland an honest country, a strong country—also on the international stage,” he said last month.
Presidential vote likely to determine Poland’s place on the EU stage
Jon Henley
Poland’s presidential election runoff could have far-reaching implications for its place in Europe – either cementing the country’s hard-won seat at the EU’s top table, or heralding a return to altogether trickier times.
The mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, faces off against the historian Karol Nawrocki on Sunday in a neck-and-neck race, pitting a liberal vision of Poland at the heart of European policymaking against a nationalist, radical-right, EU-critical stance.
Trzaskowski is backed by the Civic Platform coalition of the prime minister, Donald Tusk, which won parliamentary elections in 2023. Nawrocki is backed by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, which was in power for the eight previous years.
While in theory Polish presidents have limited influence over foreign policy, a win for Nawrocki, backed by PiS, would inevitably – and, eventually, significantly – constrain Poland’s European ambitions, analysts say.
If you’re wondering just how close the polls are, I have just looked up all of them that were published in the last 24 hours. Trzaskowski leads in most of them, but by the tiniest of margins, from 0.2 to 2.4 percentage points.
But two of them also give a win to Nawrocki, including OGB Pro for Wirtualna Polska which came closest to the actual result in the first round two weeks ago.
They predict the race to be decided by somewhere around 260,000 votes.
To give you an idea of just how tight that is, there are almost 700,000 registered voters overseas, including some 181,000 in the UK. So it is theoretically possible that their votes could decide the race…
Both candidates out and about from early morning
Both candidates are out and about from early hours today, as they fight for every single vote they can get.
Speaking in Włocławek, Trzaskowski rallied his voters and urged them to “convince all those who are not convinced yet.”
“These values that we most cherish – honesty, basic human decency, ale [the motivation to] build Poland that thinks about the future – will win,” he said.
Nawrocki hit the road early, too, posting a smiling photo from his campaign bus just before 7am. Earlier this morning, he was in Gorlice in south-eastern Poland, rallying his voters in what is traditionally a conservative stronghold.
Morning opening: Too close to call
Jakub Krupa
Good morning, or dzień dobry, from Warsaw.
On the final day of the Polish presidential campaign, all polls show the difference between the two leading candidates – pro-European Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and nationalist right historian Karol Nawrocki – within the margin of error.
With the country going into a period of “electoral silence” at midnight, both of them have just under 15 hours to win over the last wavering voters in what will probably be the closest election in Polish history.
According to polls, some 5% of voters are yet to make their minds up, and it is this group that could decide the outcome on Sunday.
The final margin between the two candidates is expected to be about 200,000 votes – in a nation of 37 million, with some 29.3 million eligible to vote.
I will bring you all the key updates from Poland and across Europe throughout the day.
It’s Friday, 30 May 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
